The current Boeing Twenty-Year Market Outlook provides a detailed forecast for the coming decades. Several key factors impact a demand acceleration. Unsurprisingly, the continuing strong consumer economy demand drives increasing global air travel. For example, year-over-year passenger travel growth for the past five years averaged 6.2 percent. Lower air fares and higher living standards in large emerging markets are major drivers. These factors, in addition to the growth of tourism and consumer travel spending in major economies are all driving demand for air travel. You can compare this information with reports from Airbus, Bombardier, Embraer, COMAC, United Aircraft and Mitsubishi. Excerpts from the Boeing Report:
Key Boeing Points
Economic and Income Growth Are Main Drivers. Economic and income growth in large emerging markets such as China and India are the primary drivers of global GDP growth and demand for air travel.
Strong Consumer Spending and Services Growth Bolstering Air Travel Demand. Consumer spending remains robust in developed economies such as the United States, Europe, and Australia. Similarly, emerging markets such as China are transitioning to more service-based economies and driving air travel demand. This trend will continue in global economic outlooks.
Travel and Tourism Is A Growing Part of Consumer Spending. Within the services sector of the global economy, consumer spending on travel and tourism continues to grow. According to the World Tourism Organization, international tourist arrivals grew 3.9 percent in 2016. This pace is faster than overall GDP growth and will continue. The direct contribution of tourism and travel to global GDP is driving expected growth of 4 percent per year. Unsurprisingly, this outlook for strong air travel demand is consistent with broader consumer travel and tourism outlooks.
Combined with these factors, airlines seek competitive advantages in passengers’ preferences. Driven by demand for shorter stage lengths, networks continue to gravitate toward more point-to-point air travel. Directly supporting this strategy is the availability of new technology airplanes. The 787 economically serves secondary cities directly and thus reduces routings through congested airports. This market dynamic is expected to continue developing over the next 20 years.