Embraer’s Twenty-Year Market Outlook provides a very good overview of global and regional projections. Embraer also details possible obstacles to continued global and regional airline growth. Additionally, the report discusses commercial pilot shortages and possible impacts around the world. Compare this with other projections by visiting Avi8ion’s pages for Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier, Mitsubishi, COMAC and Russia’s United Aircraft.
Air transport demand forecast: RPK growth rate by region. World passenger traffic will grow at 4.5% over the next two decades. Despite external shocks to the system, air travel remains resilient to ruptures, always keeping its historical trend in the long term.
By 2036, the Middle East and Asia Pacific will be the fastest growing markets, with an annual RPK growth rate of around 6.0%. Latin America grows at 5.2%, Africa 4.9%, the CIS 3.6%, Europe 3.6% and North America at 2.7%.
Globally, air transport demand will increase 2.5 times by 2036, reaching 16 trillion RPKs for all commercial aircraft segments.
The Asia-Pacific region will be the largest market, accounting for 37% of world RPKs. Combined, Europe and North America will generate 36% of total air transport demand.
The 70-130 Seat Jet Segment (2017-2036 Projected Deliveries)
Embraer foresees world demand for 6,400 new jets in the 70 to 130-seat segment over the next 20 years. Forecast demand is 2,280 units in the 70 to 90-seat segment and 4,120 units in the 90 to 130-seat segment. Combined, these represent a total market value of US$ 300 billion.
As the fastest growing segment, the 70 to 130-seat jet segment will increase from 2,700 aircraft in 2016 to 6,710 by 2036. Replacement of ageing aircraft will represent 37% of new deliveries and 63% will represent market growth.
The regional jet market is a strong sector based on a combination of higher loads and greater profitability.